Sonoma Academy are still perfect and still first in NCS boys Division 2, Quarry Lane jump three places to fifth, and only a single rating point separates second from fourth.
Sonoma Academy remain top of the NCS boys Division 2 rankings, and no one is close to catching them. They have won all three of their games since the last table, each of them at home: 7-2 against Tomales on September 25, 3-1 against Oakland Military Institute on September 28 and 6-0 against Mendocino on September 30. That makes them 11-0-0, and their rating rose from 85.6 to 86.5. Their best result is still the 2-1 win at Calistoga on September 11, and on September 16 they beat Credo 3-0, a Division 1 side with a 9-3-2 record. They now sit 4.2 rating points clear of second place. No other team in the top ten is more than 2.2 points clear of the side below them.
Calistoga stay second after three straight wins. They beat Anderson Valley 11-0 at home on September 25, won 6-0 at Mendocino three days later and edged Tomales 3-2 away on September 30. They are 10-1-2, and their only defeat is a one-goal home loss to Sonoma Academy. Their rating climbed from 80.9 to 82.3.
Jewish Community hold third, but only just. Their one game since the last table was a 2-1 win at Bentley Upper School on September 29, and that result kept them in place. Without it, Cristo Rey De La Salle would be third. Jewish Community are 8-2-0, and their wins over The International School of San Francisco (5-1-1) and Gateway (4-2-0) are among the best results by any Division 2 side this fall.
Cristo Rey De La Salle stay fourth, but they have closed most of the gap on Jewish Community. They beat Oakland Military Institute 4-2 at home on September 25 and won 5-1 at Saint Joseph Notre Dame on September 30. Each win added close to a full point, and their rating rose from 79.5 to 81.3. They are 6-1-0, and their only defeat came at home against Saint Maximilian Catholic School, who top Division 3. Second, third and fourth are now separated by exactly one rating point.
Quarry Lane made the biggest climb in the division, up three places to fifth. They won 5-3 at Brave Christian (4-3-1) on September 25, and that win alone was worth 1.6 rating points. They followed it with a 6-4 win at California Crosspoint on September 29. Those two results took them from 3-1-0 to 5-1-0, and their only defeat is a 6-2 loss at Cristo Rey De La Salle on September 1. They have played a lighter schedule than anyone else in the division, so the weeks ahead will show how much of this rise is here to stay.
Clear Lake move up one place to sixth, even though they lost. The 2-1 defeat at Lower Lake (5-3-2) on September 29 cost them 0.8 rating points. They climbed only because Mendocino and Oakland Military Institute, who were above them, dropped further. Their 9-3-3 record comes from 15 games, more than anyone else in the top ten has played.
Mendocino slip one place to seventh after a hard week. They won 2-0 at Geyserville New Tech Academy on September 25, lost 1-0 at Fort Bragg (10-4-1) the next day, then lost 6-0 at home to Calistoga on September 28 and 6-0 at Sonoma Academy on September 30. The home defeat by Calistoga did the most harm. Their rating fell from 78.2 to 76.6.
Oakland Military Institute are the biggest fallers, down three places to eighth. They lost 4-2 at Cristo Rey De La Salle and 3-1 at Sonoma Academy, and the first of those defeats cost them a full point. Without it they would be sixth. Their 2-3-2 record looks modest, but no team in Division 2 has played a harder schedule, and they also hold a 2-2 draw at Calistoga from August.
Further down, Bentley Upper School stay ninth after that 2-1 home defeat by Jewish Community. Only Oakland Military Institute has faced a tougher schedule. Redwood Christian climb one place to tenth after two big home wins, 8-1 over California Crosspoint and 9-0 over Fremont Christian. They are also the only Division 2 side to beat Jewish Community this fall, 3-2 away in August. Drew School drop one place to 11th after two one-goal defeats, 2-1 at Saint Joseph Notre Dame and 2-1 at home to The International School of San Francisco.
The shape of the table tells the story. Sonoma Academy are 4.2 points clear at the top. Behind them, Calistoga, Jewish Community and Cristo Rey De La Salle are bunched within a single point, so one result can reorder second through fourth. Clear Lake, Mendocino and Oakland Military Institute are separated by half a point in sixth through eighth.
What is next, and what it could mean
Each projection below takes one result on its own and leaves everything else as it stands today. The real table will depend on how all of the results combine, but the projections show which games matter most.
The rematch to circle is October 13, when Calistoga visit Sonoma Academy. The first meeting went 2-1 to Sonoma Academy at Calistoga. This time, though, first place will not change hands that night. Sonoma Academy's lead is big enough that even a three-goal Calistoga win would leave Sonoma Academy on top. In fact, not even a three-goal defeat in any one of their remaining games would cost them first place.
The fight for second is wide open. Jewish Community have three chances to take it. A win at Gateway on October 8 by two goals or more would lift them to second. So would a win of any kind against unbeaten Bay School of San Francisco (9-0-2) on October 20, or at The International School of San Francisco on October 22. But they have little room for error. A draw or a defeat against San Francisco Waldorf on October 1, or a draw at Drew School on October 6, would drop them to fourth.
A defeat at Sonoma Academy would not cost Calistoga second place, but a slip at home could. A home defeat by Technology (1-7-0) on October 7 would drop them to fourth. A home defeat by Credo on October 21 would drop them to third, with Jewish Community moving up.
Cristo Rey De La Salle need only one more win to move up. A win over Summit Tamalpais on October 7, by any margin, would lift them to third. So would a win over Summit K2 on October 28.
Quarry Lane host Redwood Christian on October 1 and visit them on October 23. A win, a draw or even a one-goal defeat in the first meeting would keep them fifth. A defeat by two goals or more would drop them to sixth, with Clear Lake taking their place, and would lift Redwood Christian to ninth.
Clear Lake face a demanding October in league play. A win at Fort Bragg on October 1 would keep them sixth, while a three-goal defeat there would drop them to seventh. The bigger risks come at home: a defeat by Kelseyville on October 6 or by Lower Lake on October 22 would drop them to eighth. Kelseyville have already beaten them twice this season.
The sides just below Clear Lake have big chances of their own. Mendocino host Credo on October 7, and a win would lift them back to sixth. Credo won the first meeting 9-0. Oakland Military Institute can climb two places to sixth by winning at Bentley Upper School on October 7 or at home against Saint Maximilian Catholic School on October 16. A defeat at Bentley Upper School, though, would see the two sides trade places, with Bentley Upper School up to eighth.
Redwood Christian could climb to ninth by winning at Quarry Lane on October 1, at Brave Christian on October 6 or at College Preparatory School on October 7. And Drew School could jump two places to ninth by winning at Bay School of San Francisco on October 2.
With a month of the regular season left, the top of Division 2 belongs to Sonoma Academy for now. Everything below them is still up for grabs.
About the ratings
The rating points in this story come from our own rankings model, not from NCS. Every team is rated on the same scale, across all four divisions, and 75 marks an average team. A result moves a rating more or less depending on who it came against: beating a strong side earns more than beating a weak one, and losing to a weak side costs more than losing to a strong one. The winning margin counts, but only up to five goals, so a 10-0 win is worth no more than a 5-0 win. Home teams get a small allowance, so an away win is worth slightly more than the same win at home. Early in the season, every rating is also pulled toward the average until a team has played enough games to show where it really stands.