Saint Maximilian Catholic School stay first in NCS boys Division 3 despite their first defeat, Rio Lindo Adventist Academy move into the top five, and the top two sides meet twice in October.
Saint Maximilian Catholic School remain top of the NCS boys Division 3 rankings, even though they lost for the first time this season. The Napa side won 5-2 at Rio Lindo Adventist Academy on September 25, then lost 2-1 at Leroy Greene Academy three days later. That defeat cost them more than the win had earned, but their rating still rose slightly, from 81.0 to 81.4. Rio Lindo Adventist Academy, whom they have now beaten twice, climbed in the ratings this week, and that made both of those wins worth more. At 6-1-2, Saint Maximilian Catholic School have won more games than anyone else in the division, and their 4-2 win over Cristo Rey De La Salle, who are 5-1-0, is still the only Division 3 win this fall over one of the stronger teams in our ratings.
Summerfield Waldorf of Santa Rosa stay second without having played since the last rankings table. They have played only three times, and their two wins came 6-0 at Rio Lindo Adventist Academy and 4-1 at Geyserville New Tech Academy. No place in the top five rests on less evidence, and the next month will tell us a great deal about how good they really are.
Brave Christian hold third after a mixed week. They lost 5-3 at home to Quarry Lane (5-1-0) on September 25, then beat Contra Costa Christian 8-0 on September 29. Their rating slipped slightly. Contra Costa Christian have won only once all season, so a big win over them was expected and added little. The home defeat by a strong Quarry Lane side cost them more than twice as much.
Rio Lindo Adventist Academy climb one place to fourth after three results. The first, a 5-1 win at Laytonville on September 24, was reported too late for the last rankings table. They then lost 5-2 at home to Saint Maximilian Catholic School and beat Geyserville New Tech Academy 5-4 at home on September 28. Two wins in three games took them from 1-2-0 to 3-3-0.
That climb came at the expense of Anderson Valley, who drop one place to fifth. They were beaten 11-0 at Calistoga (8-1-3) on September 25, but the defeat did almost no harm to their rating. Calistoga are one of the strongest sides they have faced, so a loss there was expected, and goals beyond five do not count. Four days later they drew 2-2 at home with Credo, who have won nine of their 14 games, and that point nudged their rating up. Their rating barely moved over the week, and they slipped a place only because Rio Lindo Adventist Academy's two wins carried them past. Only two teams in Division 3 have played a harder schedule.
Outside the top five, San Francisco Waldorf make the biggest climb, up two places to sixth. They won 6-1 at Pacific Bay Christian on September 25 and lost 6-2 at Gateway (4-2-0) on September 29. Only one team in the division has played a tougher schedule. Tomales stay seventh after a 7-2 defeat at unbeaten Sonoma Academy, and Point Arena move up one to eighth after beating Technology 7-1 at home. Laytonville are the biggest fallers, down three places to ninth after that 5-1 home defeat by Rio Lindo Adventist Academy.
The shape of the table matters as much as the order. Saint Maximilian Catholic School sit 1.9 rating points clear of Summerfield Waldorf of Santa Rosa, who are another 3.8 clear of Brave Christian. Below that, the seven teams from third to ninth are separated by just 4.6 points. That is why a single result can move a side two or three places in the middle of this table, and why the next four weeks could reshape it.
What is next, and what it could mean
Each projection below takes one result on its own and leaves everything else as it stands today. The real table will depend on how all of the results combine, but the projections show which games matter most.
The date to circle is October 14, when Summerfield Waldorf of Santa Rosa visit Saint Maximilian Catholic School. The two meet again at Summerfield on October 30. Last fall, Saint Maximilian Catholic School drew 4-4 with them and then won 4-2. This time first place is on the line both nights. A Summerfield Waldorf of Santa Rosa win in either game, by any margin, would be enough on its own to take them top, while a draw would keep Saint Maximilian Catholic School in front. Before October 14, only a defeat by three goals or more against St. Joseph Notre Dame on October 7 would knock the leaders off first place.
No one has a better chance to climb in the coming days than Rio Lindo Adventist Academy. A win at Summit K2 on October 5 would lift them to third on its own. A win at Summerfield Waldorf of Santa Rosa two days later would do the same, and it would be a chance to answer the 6-0 home defeat Summerfield Waldorf of Santa Rosa handed them in September. They finish a run of three games in four days at Redwood Collegiate Academy on October 8, where a defeat would drop them back to fifth.
Brave Christian have seven games left, and most of them come against sides below them. They play Fremont Christian twice (October 2 and October 16), host California Crosspoint on October 8 and visit Contra Costa Christian on October 22. Those are games they are expected to win, and a slip in any of them would drop them to fourth. The most interesting one is the return meeting at Quarry Lane on October 20, a chance to put right the 5-3 defeat that cost them this week.
Anderson Valley face three Division 3 rivals in eight days: Laytonville at home on October 2, Point Arena at home on October 6 and Tomales away on October 9. A win in any of them would keep them fifth. A defeat in any of them would drop them to sixth, and a heavy home defeat by Laytonville would push them down to seventh. The biggest prize on their schedule is a trip to unbeaten Sonoma Academy (10-0-0) on October 23, where a win would lift them to fourth.
For San Francisco Waldorf, every win is a step up. A win in any of their next seven games would, on its own, move them to fifth. The best opportunity comes at The Bay School (9-0-2) on October 23, where a win by two goals or more would put them fourth. There is risk too: a defeat by Drew (2-5-0), whom they play on October 9 and October 20, would send them down to ninth.
The chasing pack have big chances of their own. Tomales host Calistoga on September 30, visit Credo on October 2 and host Anderson Valley on October 9, and a win in any of those games would lift them to fifth. A win over Anderson Valley would mean the two sides trade places. Point Arena can do the same with a win at Anderson Valley on October 6. Laytonville, who meet Redwood Collegiate Academy three times in the next two weeks, could jump to fifth by winning at Anderson Valley on October 2 or at Calistoga on October 23. And Averroes Institute could climb two places, to eighth, by winning at Athenian (8-2-1) on October 6 or at Saint Maximilian Catholic School on October 27.
With so many games left to play, the Division 3 table has plenty of changing still to do.