We called nine NCS boys games last week. Sonoma Academy 3-1 Credo landed exactly, three more went the way we said, and five did not, from Calistoga's three-goal night at Sonoma Academy to OMI's 6-0 win in Napa.
A week ago, we put a scoreline on nine games. We are going back to every one of them.
The short version: one exact score, four right results and five wrong ones. We had Sonoma Academy beating Credo 3-1, and that is exactly how it finished. We had the Bay School, Lower Lake and Fort Bragg winning, and all three did. We also had Calistoga taking a point off the North Central League II leaders, Fortuna winning at Eureka and Saint Maximilian getting their revenge on Oakland Military Institute. None of those happened.
Here is what we got right, what we got wrong, and what actually happened in each game.
Sonoma Academy 3-1 Credo, to the goal
We said: Sonoma Academy 3-1 Credo. Final: Sonoma Academy 3-1 Credo.
Our case was that Credo had the finishers to score once, but not enough to trouble a defense that had kept them out a month earlier. That held up on Monday at Credo.
Marcel Nsizoa Ndi scored twice and sophomore Ben McCauley added the third. Senior Teo Foehl set up two of the goals and sophomore Maddox Rogers set up the other. It was Sonoma Academy's fourth straight win over Credo on record, and it took the Coyotes to 15-0-0 going into the game we had circled.
The defeat left Credo (Gryphon) third in the league. They visit Calistoga on Wednesday, Oct. 21.
The Bay School answer another goalless draw
We said: The Bay School 2-0 Gateway. Final: The Bay School 1-0 Gateway.
The reasoning here was the Breakers' history. When the International School of San Francisco held them 0-0 in September, they won the rematch 3-0. We expected the same answer to Gateway's goalless draw, and got it, though by a narrower margin.
Senior Teo Graham Cook scored the only goal on Thursday, and sophomore Eli Levison made five saves to keep the Gators out for a second straight meeting. The pivotal moment came when Levison saved a penalty late in the second half to preserve the 1-0 win for the Breakers. Two days earlier, the Breakers won 3-0 at Drew School. Jackson Lessing, Noah Leopold and Nate Won scored that day, Graham Cook set one up, and Levison kept a clean sheet there too.
The Bay School are 12-0-3, still unbeaten, and lead the Bay Counties League - Central at 6-0-2. Gateway (Gators), who had won 5-1 at San Francisco Waldorf on Tuesday, drop to 6-4-1. The Breakers visit Jewish Community on Tuesday, Oct. 20.
Lower Lake and Fort Bragg win on the same night
We said: Lower Lake 4-1 Cloverdale and Fort Bragg 3-0 Middletown. Final: Lower Lake 2-0 Cloverdale and Fort Bragg 5-1 Middletown.
Both quick picks went the right way on Tuesday, though neither scoreline was right.
Lower Lake (Trojans) led Cloverdale 2-0 at half-time and kept it there. Two days later they beat Middletown 3-0 at home, so they took the week with two clean sheets. They sit second in the North Central League I, behind Fort Bragg.
Fort Bragg (Timberwolves) led 3-0 at Middletown at half-time, which was our full-time prediction, and won 5-1. Middletown's goalkeeper, junior David Reyes, made 13 saves to keep it from getting bigger. Freshman Andres Yebra scored Middletown's goal, set up by freshman Xavier Yebra. Fort Bragg then won 4-0 at Upper Lake on Thursday, and they still lead the league.
That sets up the league's biggest game of the season so far. Fort Bragg visit Lower Lake on Tuesday, Oct. 20, first against second.
Calistoga took them all the way, and still lost
We said: Sonoma Academy 1-1 Calistoga. Final: Sonoma Academy 4-3 Calistoga.
This was the one we went out on a limb for. Calistoga had three days of rest, Sonoma Academy were playing for the second day running, and the Coyotes had won both their games the week before by a single goal. We thought it would be tight, low-scoring and level.
It was tight. It was not low-scoring. Sonoma Academy won 4-3, a seven-goal game settled by one. The three Calistoga scored are the most anyone has put past the Coyotes this fall, so we were right that the Wildcats could hurt them. We were wrong about Sonoma Academy's attack. We read those two narrow wins as a sign the goals were drying up. Instead, the Coyotes scored three at Credo and four more against Calistoga the next day.
Sonoma Academy are 16-0-0 and 14-0-0 in the league, and they have now beaten Calistoga twice this fall, both times by a single goal. Calistoga players walked away feeling “robbed” after a controversial go-ahead goal. The Wildcats ended the week with a 4-0 win over Point Arena on Friday, and both of their defeats this fall have come against the leaders.
Calistoga hosts Credo on Wednesday, Oct. 21. Sonoma Academy hosts Anderson Valley on Friday, Oct. 23.
Del Norte's home form held, and then they won at Arcata
We said: McKinleyville 2-1 Del Norte. Final: Del Norte 1-1 McKinleyville.
We leaned on McKinleyville's attack and their two one-goal wins over Del Norte this fall. We also wrote that Del Norte were hard to beat on their own field, and that was the part that mattered on Wednesday.
Gaelen Creighton scored for McKinleyville, set up by Becker Rine. Junior Jayden Garcia-Levy equalised for Del Norte, set up by junior Axel Ortega. The draw left the two sides level at 5-3-2, fourth and fifth in the Big 5.
Del Norte (Warriors) then did what none of the chasing pack had managed. On Saturday they led 2-0 at Arcata at half-time and won 2-1, handing the leaders their first league defeat of the season. It was their second 2-1 win at Arcata this fall, after the one on Sept. 12. Arcata are still top of the Big 5 at 10-1-1. Del Norte are 9-5-4 and visit Eureka on Wednesday, Oct. 21.
Eureka beat Fortuna twice
We said: Fortuna 2-1 Eureka. Final: Eureka 3-1 Fortuna.
Our reasoning was that Fortuna's defense travels and that Eureka had struggled at home against the sides above them, losing heavily to both Arcata and McKinleyville.
Neither trend survived Saturday. Fortuna had conceded once in four away games, and Eureka (Logger) scored three times on their way to a 3-1 win. They have now won two of their three meetings with Fortuna this fall, after the 1-0 win at Fortuna on Sept. 12. Fortuna's only win in the series this season was 4-2 at home.
Fortuna (Husky), last season's Big 5 champions, are 11-6-1 and still second at 7-3-1. Eureka are 10-7-0 and third at 8-4-0. Fortuna visit South Fork on Tuesday, Oct. 20, and Eureka host Del Norte on Wednesday.
Saint Maximilian 0, OMI 6
We said: Saint Maximilian 3-2 Oakland Military Institute. Final: Oakland Military Institute 6-0 Saint Maximilian.
This was our worst call, and we have already written about it. Our case was that the Crusaders had scored 42 in 12 games and OMI had conceded 23 in eight. We gave less weight to the fact that Saint Maximilian had lost three of their previous four.
"We lost 6-0. The outcome we were looking for didn't happen," Saint Maximilian head coach Alex Cendejas said afterwards.
The Grizzlies went ahead early, Saint Maximilian missed a clear one-on-one chance to answer, and OMI led only 1-0 at the break. Ninety seconds after the restart, the Crusaders had another one-on-one and missed again. OMI scored a second, and a third followed shortly after. Cendejas then rotated his squad, bringing on his bench and moving defenders into goal, and the Grizzlies added three more.
Cendejas also pointed to what a school with 18 high school boys is up against. "Nearly every opponent we face has an advantage in terms of enrollment, squad depth, and the number of players they have available," he said.
The win ended a three-game losing run for Oakland Military Institute (Grizzlies) and took them to 3-4-2. Saint Maximilian Catholic School (Crusaders) fell to 7-4-2. "We cannot change the last five games, but we can determine how we respond in the next one," Cendejas said. Saint Maximilian host OMI again on Oct. 26.
Willits hold Clear Lake
We said: Clear Lake 3-0 Willits. Final: Clear Lake 1-1 Willits.
Clear Lake had won two straight and were favourites at home on this season's results. Willits (Wolverine) came in at 4-7-3.
Clear Lake and Willits were level 1-1 at half-time, and it stayed that way. Willits goalkeeper Ivan Estrada, a junior, made 11 saves in the 1-1 draw. Estrada made 13 more on Thursday, when Willits lost 3-1 to Kelseyville, with Damian Reiter scoring and Quinn Schadeck setting him up.
Clear Lake (Cardinal) had a harder week than our pick suggested. After the draw they lost 2-1 at Cloverdale on Thursday, two days after Cloverdale's defeat to Lower Lake. They visit Middletown on Tuesday, Oct. 20.
What's next
Two games stand out this week: Fort Bragg at Lower Lake on Tuesday, first against second in the North Central League I, and Credo at Calistoga on Wednesday. After last week, we will be a little less sure of ourselves.