Four home teams, four home wins, and one upset to watch

The NCS Division I playoffs start on Wednesday, November 4. All four first-round games are at the higher seed's field. Three of the home sides go in as favourites on this season's results, and the fourth, Athenian, are level with Gateway. We think all four home sides win. Only one of them does it comfortably, and one of them is a game we could easily get wrong.

(8) Fort Bragg vs. (9) Bentley

Wednesday, Nov. 4, at 7:00 p.m., at Fort Bragg.

Fort Bragg's strengths: a perfect home record and a spine their coach trusts. The Timberwolves are 10-0-0 at home and have outscored visitors 41-6. All four of their defeats came on the road. Two of coach Oscar Estrella's captains anchor the back. He calls goalkeeper Tyler Rhoads a "True leader on the field," and says 6-foot-5 center back Matteo Caccamo "has been key for our success." Rhoads has made 154 saves this fall. Going forward, Oscar Estrella Jr (19 goals), Ethan Hikes (15) and Elias Real (12) give them three different scorers, and Estrella credits "the consistent chemistry these boys have had these past 3 seasons."

Bentley's strengths: composure in tight games. The Bay Counties League - East champions are unbeaten in eight, and nine of their 16 games have been draws or one-goal results, including a shootout win in the league semifinal and a 2-1 overtime win over Athenian in the final. In that final, Koji Green steadied the Phoenix in midfield and scored the equalizer, and Chase Rose's pace on the counterattack produced several of their best chances. Green (10 goals) also scored the winner against Saint Joseph Notre Dame a week earlier.

Where it is decided: Bentley's attack runs through two players, Green's passing and Rose's running, and Fort Bragg have the tall center back and the experienced keeper to deal with both. The bigger question is Bentley's defense, which has conceded 21 in 16, against three Fort Bragg scorers. Bentley are also 2-2-0 on the road, and their heaviest defeat came there, 5-0 at Bay School of San Francisco.

The call: Bentley can keep it tight for a while, as they have all season. Fort Bragg's depth up front and their record at home decide it.

Prediction: Fort Bragg 3-1 Bentley

(5) Calistoga vs. (12) Fortuna

Wednesday, Nov. 4, at 7:00 p.m., at Calistoga.

Calistoga's strengths: possession, and goals from everywhere. Coach Cristian Escobedo has built his side to keep the ball, and assistant Jeremy Grove says the midfield of Leo Ramos, Mateo Medina and Ulises Navarette can "move the ball with intention, find space where available, and unite our team from defense to offense." The result is 118 goals. Ramos has 38 goals and 20 assists in 18 games, and freshman Alex Sarabio has 21.

Fortuna's strengths: last season's Big 5 champions travel well, 7-3-1 away, including a 1-0 win at McKinleyville, and they have 10 clean sheets. They also have more than three times Calistoga's enrollment, which matters to this opponent. Escobedo told us his side has "struggled to carry that same confidence into matches against larger schools with greater resources."

Where it is decided: both teams' numbers are built on easy games. Against everyone outside Sonoma Academy, Credo, Eureka and Oakland Military Institute, Calistoga have scored 103 and conceded 10 in 14 games. Against those four, they are 2-2-2, with 15 goals scored and 15 conceded. Fortuna are the same story: 85-3 in 12 games against the rest, but 2-6-1 against Arcata, McKinleyville, Eureka and Fort Bragg, scoring 12 and conceding 20. So Calistoga's defense, not their attack, is the question. Grove knows it: his keeper and back line "need to be locked-in for us to make a deep run into playoffs." The common opponents are split. Fortuna beat Credo 5-0, while Calistoga drew 3-3 with Credo and won 3-2. Calistoga beat Eureka 3-2, while Fortuna lost two of three to Eureka.

The call: Fortuna will score, because good teams have scored on Calistoga all season. But Fortuna have found goals hard against the top of their own league, and Calistoga's midfield gives them more ways to break a defense down.

Prediction: Calistoga 3-2 Fortuna

(7) McKinleyville vs. (10) College Preparatory School

Wednesday, Nov. 4, at 2:30 p.m., at McKinleyville.

McKinleyville's strengths: finishing. Gaelen Creighton has 27 goals, Becker Rine has 24 in 14 games, and Lucas Jones has 21 assists. They are also the only side to beat Fort Bragg twice, both times 1-0, so they can win tight games too.

College Prep's strengths: a defense that keeps every game close, and a quick counterattack. Their 6-5-1 record undersells them. All five defeats were by one goal, to Bay School of San Francisco, The International School of San Francisco, Bentley and Athenian twice, and they have conceded 15 in 12 games. When we saw them draw 1-1 at Athenian in October, they looked to turn defensive stops into quick counterattacks through Lucas Beamer and Pelayo Llamas III, and Beamer scored their goal. They also beat Gateway 3-2, while McKinleyville lost 4-1 at Gateway.

Where it is decided: that 4-1 defeat is the warning for McKinleyville. Gateway's pace, from Santiago Dennis and the wings, pulled the Panthers apart after halftime, and McKinleyville have conceded three or more four times this fall, most recently in a 5-2 home defeat to Arcata. College Prep's counterattack asks the same questions. The problem for College Prep is the road. They are 4-0-0 at home and 2-5-1 away, every one of their defeats came away from home, they have lost three straight, and this one is in Humboldt County.

The call: another one-goal game, the only kind College Prep seem to play away from home. McKinleyville's front line has enough finishers to take the one chance that decides it.

Prediction: McKinleyville 2-1 College Preparatory School

(6) Athenian vs. (11) Gateway: our upset watch

Wednesday, Nov. 4, at 2:30 p.m., at Athenian.

Athenian's strengths: control. When we watched them, the Owls were comfortable building from the back, with Judah Mukome (21 goals, 11 assists) strong on the ball under pressure, Emeka Obiora holding it up in the middle and Jolan Raby a constant threat on the wing in the league final. They have conceded 18 in 19 games with eight clean sheets, they are 7-2-2 at home, and their keeper, Cyrus Kapadia, scored their goal in the final. Against College Prep they are 2-0-1. Gateway lost 3-2 there.

Gateway's strengths: resilience, and a midfield that can hold its own. Coach Henry Estrada calls senior Matisse Molat "the heartbeat of our midfield," with "a cool head, great precision, and an impressive combination of attacking creativity and defensive ability." And they have already won a game like this one. On October 27, they won 1-0 at top seed Bay School of San Francisco in the league semifinal, the Breakers' only defeat. "We compete for every ball, battle through adversity, and never stop believing in ourselves," Estrada said.

Where it is decided: Gateway's sharpest weapon is aimed at Athenian's habit. Estrada describes Dennis as bringing "incredible speed, intensity, and relentless pressure to the opposition's back line," and Athenian like to play out from the back. If Dennis forces a mistake, Gateway can win. Their problem is goals: they have scored two in their last five games, and freshman Cristian Santillam, who scored twice in the win over McKinleyville, has been sidelined by injury. Gateway's center backs have also been playing out of position, and Athenian's front line, with Obiora's strength and Mukome's movement, will test that. Estrada's plan is to "stay organized defensively, and make the most of our scoring opportunities."

History: one meeting on record, a 1-1 draw at Gateway in October 2025.

The call: this is the closest game of the round on this season's results. Athenian have Mukome and home field. Gateway have shown they can keep a better side out, and if it is level late, they are the side we would worry about.

Prediction: Athenian 2-1 Gateway

The quarterfinals

The Fort Bragg-Bentley winner visits top seed Bay School of San Francisco. Calistoga-Fortuna goes to Arcata, McKinleyville-College Prep to Sonoma Academy, and Athenian-Gateway to The International School of San Francisco.