Bay School of San Francisco are still first in NCS boys Division 1, The International School of San Francisco go from outside the top five to second, and Gateway fall from second to tenth after two defeats in three games.
1. Bay School of San Francisco
Bay School of San Francisco remain top of the NCS boys Division 1 rankings, and they are still unbeaten. Since our last table, they won 3-1 at San Francisco Waldorf on September 23, drew 0-0 at home with The International School of San Francisco on September 25, then beat Athenian 2-1 at home on September 29. That takes them from 7-0-1 to 9-0-2. They have conceded just three goals all season, and their two draws came against sides who now sit second and fourth in this table. Their rating is 1.8 points higher than anyone else's.
2. The International School of San Francisco
The International School of San Francisco are the big climbers. They were outside our last top five, and now they are second. They held Bay School of San Francisco to a 0-0 draw away on September 25, won 2-1 at Drew School on September 29, and then beat Gateway, second in our last table, 4-1 at home on October 1. That last result is what puts them above McKinleyville, who lost 4-1 at Gateway on September 16. They have gone from 4-1-0 to 6-1-1. Their only defeat is a 3-2 loss at Jewish Community, and they have not lost in five games since.
3. McKinleyville
McKinleyville stay third after winning all three of their games since our last table: 6-0 at Ferndale on September 23, then 11-1 against St. Bernard's Academy on September 26 and 5-0 against South Fork on September 30, both at home. That takes them from 9-3-0 to 12-3-0, the most wins in the division. Their best result is still a 1-0 win over Fort Bragg. The result that keeps them behind The International School of San Francisco is that 4-1 defeat at Gateway, the same side The International School of San Francisco beat 4-1. The big tests come in the next few days, starting at Arcata on Saturday.
4. Arcata
Arcata hold fourth. They drew 0-0 at Del Norte on September 22, then beat Ferndale 13-0 at home on September 26 and won 5-0 at Eureka on September 29. That takes them from 8-3-1 to 10-3-2. Goals past five do not count in the ratings, so the 13-0 win was worth no more than a 5-0 would have been. One of their draws is a 1-1 at Bay School of San Francisco, and only they and The International School of San Francisco have taken points off the leaders. What keeps Arcata from climbing higher is a pair of defeats on back-to-back days: 1-0 at home to Eureka on September 11 and 2-1 at home to Del Norte on September 12. McKinleyville have beaten both of those sides, Del Norte twice and Eureka 1-0 on September 12, although they also lost 3-2 to Eureka on September 8. Arcata's other defeat was 2-1 at Credo in August.
5. Fort Bragg
Fort Bragg hold fifth after the busiest stretch of anyone in the top ten, with five games in ten days. They beat Upper Lake 7-0 on September 22, Lower Lake 3-1 on September 24 and Mendocino 1-0 on September 26, all at home. Then they lost 1-0 at Willits (4-6-3) on September 29, before bouncing back with a 3-1 home win over Clear Lake on October 1. That takes them from 7-3-1 to 11-4-1. The defeat at Willits is the one that hurt. Without it, Fort Bragg would rate ahead of both Arcata and The International School of San Francisco.
6. Fortuna
Fortuna were outside our last top five and now sit sixth after three straight home wins: 4-2 over Eureka on September 22, 5-0 over South Fork on September 26 and 3-0 over Del Norte on September 29. That takes them from 6-4-0 to 9-4-0. The win over Del Norte (5-5-3) was the one that counted most. Without it, they would be eighth. They also own one of the best wins in the division, 1-0 over McKinleyville.
7. Athenian
Athenian sit seventh. Since our last table, they won 4-0 at Saint Joseph Notre Dame on September 23, beat Summit Tamalpais 1-0 at home on September 25, then lost 2-1 at Bay School of San Francisco on September 29. A one-goal defeat away to the leaders is no disgrace, but it still cost them a place. Without it, they would be sixth. They are 8-2-1, and only two sides in Division 1 have played an easier schedule.
8. Credo
Credo sit eighth. They beat Point Arena 6-0 at home on September 22, then drew 2-2 at Anderson Valley, a Division 3 side with a 5-8-1 record, on September 29. That draw cost them a place on its own. Without it, they would be seventh. They are 9-3-2, and their best result is a 2-1 win over Arcata.
9. College Preparatory School
College Preparatory School sit ninth. Their only game since our last table was a 3-1 home win over Bentley Upper School on September 24. They also beat Gateway 3-2 at home on August 25, which is why they sit one place above them. At 4-2-0 they have played fewer games than anyone in the top ten, and only two sides in the division have faced a harder schedule.
10. Gateway
Gateway take the biggest fall, from second in our last table to tenth. They lost 1-0 at Jewish Community on September 23, beat San Francisco Waldorf 6-2 at home on September 29, then lost 4-1 at The International School of San Francisco on October 1. That takes them from 3-1-0 to 4-3-0. Only three sides in Division 1 have played a harder schedule, and their 4-1 win over McKinleyville is still one of the best results by any side in the division.
The shape of the table tells the story. Bay School of San Francisco are clear at the top, with a rating 1.8 points higher than anyone else's. Behind them, second through eighth are separated by just 2.7 points, and the five teams from second to sixth are within 2.1 points of each other. One result can move a team two or three places.
What is next, and what it could mean
Below are the biggest games still to come and what each result would do on its own, if nothing else changed. Several of these games will be played in the same week, so the real table will depend on how the results combine. Still, they show where the places can be won and lost.
Bay School of San Francisco host Drew School on Friday, October 2. Their lead is big enough that even a two-goal defeat would leave them first, if only just. Only a defeat by three goals or more would cost them first place.
The rematch to circle is October 9, when Bay School of San Francisco visit The International School of San Francisco. The first meeting finished 0-0. A home win for The International School of San Francisco, even by three goals, would not take first place, but it would lift their rating above McKinleyville's and make second place theirs on the numbers as well. A win for Bay School of San Francisco would drop The International School of San Francisco below both McKinleyville and Arcata. Another draw would change nothing.
The Big 5 race is where the table could shift most. McKinleyville visit Arcata on Saturday, October 3. An Arcata win would lift them past both The International School of San Francisco and McKinleyville into second, and drop McKinleyville to fourth. A McKinleyville win would lift them back above The International School of San Francisco into second, and drop Arcata to fifth, behind Fort Bragg. A draw would leave both where they are.
Three days later, on October 6, McKinleyville visit Fortuna. A Fortuna win would lift them to fifth, ahead of Fort Bragg. A McKinleyville win would lift them back above The International School of San Francisco into second and drop Fortuna to eighth. Then on October 10, Fortuna host Arcata. A Fortuna win would lift them to fourth and push Arcata down to sixth. An Arcata win would lift them past The International School of San Francisco and drop Fortuna to eighth.
Athenian and College Preparatory School meet on Friday, October 2, at Athenian. An Athenian win would lift them to sixth. A College Preparatory School win would lift them two places to seventh and drop Athenian to ninth. A draw would change nothing.
Fort Bragg visit Kelseyville on October 8. A win would keep them fifth. A defeat would drop them to sixth, with Fortuna moving up.
Credo have the biggest opportunity of anyone outside the top five. They visit unbeaten Division 2 leaders Sonoma Academy on October 12. A win of any kind would lift them two places to sixth. A defeat would leave them eighth.
With four weeks of the regular season left, Bay School of San Francisco have the clearest path to finishing first. Below them, the Big 5 sides still have plenty of games against each other, and almost every one of them can change the order.
About the ratings
The rating points in this story come from our own rankings model, not from NCS. Every team is rated on the same scale, across all four divisions, and 75 marks an average team. A result moves a rating more or less depending on who it came against: beating a strong side earns more than beating a weak one, and losing to a weak side costs more than losing to a strong one. The winning margin counts, but only up to five goals, so a 10-0 win is worth no more than a 5-0 win. Home teams get a small allowance, so an away win is worth slightly more than the same win at home. Early in the season, every rating is also pulled toward the average until a team has played enough games to show where it really stands.