Bay School of San Francisco are still unbeaten and further ahead at the top of NCS boys Division 1, Arcata beat McKinleyville and Fortuna to move up to second, and College Preparatory School climb four places into the top five.
1. Bay School of San Francisco
Bay School of San Francisco stay top of the NCS boys Division 1 rankings, and their lead is bigger than it was. Since our last table, they beat Drew School 5-0 at home, drew 0-0 at Gateway on October 6, then won 3-0 at The International School of San Francisco on October 9. That last result settled the rematch of September's 0-0 draw between the top two in the Bay Counties League - Central, and the Breakers lead that league at 4-0-2. They are 10-0-3, the only side in the top ten still unbeaten, and they have conceded three goals in 13 games, with 10 clean sheets. Their rating is now 2.7 points higher than anyone else's, up from 1.8 in our last table. The goals are shared around: in the games with recorded stats, Blaise Banks has six, Jackson Lessing has four goals and four assists, and Teo Graham Cook, Noah Leopold and center back Isaac Baristiran have four each. Junior goalkeeper Eli Levison and the back line have given up one goal in their last five games.
2. Arcata
Arcata climb two places to second after three straight wins. They beat McKinleyville 2-1 at home on October 3, won 9-0 at St. Bernard's Academy on October 6, then won 2-1 at Fortuna on October 10. That takes them from 10-3-2 to 13-3-2, and they lead the Big 5 at 8-0-1. Both one-goal wins were needed to get here. Take away either one and McKinleyville would be second instead. Junior Dakota Grosveld scored in both, with Victor Vega getting the other goal against McKinleyville and Isai Aguilar the other at Fortuna. Aguilar, a sophomore, has 21 goals in 15 games after scoring 13 in 19 as a freshman. Freshman Soren James has 14 goals and 10 assists, and Grosveld has 13 goals and six assists. At the other end, Arcata have conceded 11 goals in 18 games, with sophomore Owen Ingram in goal for most of them.
3. McKinleyville
McKinleyville hold third after a tough week on the road: a 2-1 defeat at Arcata on October 3, a 3-3 draw at Fortuna on October 6 and a 4-1 win at Eureka on October 10. That takes them from 12-3-0 to 13-4-1, still the joint-most wins in the division. Without the defeat at Arcata, they would be second. What kept them from falling was The International School of San Francisco's home defeat to the leaders. Senior Gaelen Creighton scored in all three games, including a hat trick at Fortuna, and he has 21 goals and seven assists this season after 12 and 12 last fall. Junior Becker Rine has 17 goals in 10 games, and senior Lucas Jones has set up 17. Senior defender Ayden Burtchett added a goal and two assists across the three games.
4. The International School of San Francisco
The International School of San Francisco drop two places to fourth. They won 8-0 at San Francisco Waldorf on October 6, then lost 3-0 at home to Bay School of San Francisco on October 9. That takes them from 6-1-1 to 7-2-1. The defeat to the leaders is the whole story. Without it, they would still be second. They stay ahead of College Preparatory School because they beat them 3-2 away on September 11. Senior Eli Rothschild scored twice and set up three more at San Francisco Waldorf, and he has 14 goals and eight assists in 10 games after scoring three in eight last fall. Sophomore Miles Tseng has six goals, and senior Yaseen Alrammah has six assists.
5. College Preparatory School
College Preparatory School are the big climbers, up four places from ninth to fifth. They drew 1-1 at Athenian on October 2, then beat Redwood Christian 2-0 and Saint Joseph Notre Dame 4-0, both at home and both clean sheets. That takes them from 4-2-0 to 6-2-1, and they lead the Bay Counties League - East at 3-0-1. Their two defeats were 1-0 to Bay School of San Francisco and 3-2 to The International School of San Francisco, both sides above them in this table, and they beat Gateway 3-2 in August. Their hold on fifth is the thinnest in the table: they are 0.1 points ahead of Fort Bragg, and without either of the two home wins they would be sixth. Senior Pelayo Llamas III scored twice against Redwood Christian and three times against Saint Joseph Notre Dame, and he has 19 goals in seven games with recorded stats, after seven in 11 last fall. Senior Lucas Beamer earned the point at Athenian with a free kick just before half-time.
6. Fort Bragg
Fort Bragg slip one place to sixth. They beat Cloverdale twice, 3-0 at home on October 6 and 4-1 away on October 9, but in between they drew 1-1 at Kelseyville on October 8. That draw is what cost them fifth. Without it, they would have held their place. They are 12-4-2 and lead North Central League I at 7-1-1. They are back in action tonight at Middletown.
7. Athenian
Athenian hold seventh after two draws and a win: 1-1 at home with College Preparatory School on October 2, 4-0 over Averroes on October 6 and 1-1 at Bentley Upper School on October 9. That takes them from 8-2-1 to 9-2-3. Senior Judah Mukome scored in the draw with College Preparatory School and twice against Averroes, and he has 18 goals and 10 assists in nine games. Junior Arjun Mehrotra scored at Bentley Upper School, set up by senior Hung Bui, who has seven assists.
8. Fortuna
Fortuna drop two places to eighth after three home games. They beat St. Bernard's Academy 16-0 on October 3, drew 3-3 with McKinleyville on October 6 and lost 2-1 to Arcata on October 10. That takes them from 9-4-0 to 10-5-1. Goals past five do not count in the ratings, so the 16-0 win was worth no more than a 5-0 would have been. The draw with McKinleyville made no difference to their place. The defeat to Arcata cost them one place, letting Athenian back above them, and College Preparatory School climbing past them cost them another. They still own a 1-0 win over McKinleyville from September 1, and they are second in the Big 5 at 6-2-1.
9. Gateway
Gateway move up one place to ninth. They held Bay School of San Francisco to a 0-0 draw at home on October 6, then beat Jewish Community 4-1 at home on October 8. That takes them from 4-3-0 to 5-3-1. Both results were needed to lift them past Credo. No side in Division 1 has played a harder schedule, and their 4-1 win over McKinleyville in September, when freshman Cristian Santillam scored twice, is still one of the best results in the division.
10. Credo
Credo fall two places to tenth after a split week: a 4-0 home win over Tomales, a 2-1 defeat at Mendocino on October 7, an 11-0 win over Technology on October 9, and a 3-1 home defeat to unbeaten Division 2 leaders Sonoma Academy on October 12. That takes them from 9-3-2 to 11-5-2. The defeat at Mendocino is the one that hurt. Without it, they would be eighth. They still own one of the best wins of the season, 2-1 over Arcata in August.
The shape of the table has changed at the top. Bay School of San Francisco are 2.7 points clear. Behind them, second through sixth are separated by 1.9 points, and fifth and sixth by just 0.1. One result can still move a team two places.
What is next, and what it could mean
Below are the biggest games still to come and what each result would do on its own, if nothing else changed. Several of these games fall in the same week, so the real table will depend on how the results combine.
Fort Bragg visit Middletown tonight. Any win would lift them back past College Preparatory School into fifth. A draw would leave them sixth, and a defeat would drop them to seventh, behind Athenian.
McKinleyville visit Del Norte on Wednesday, October 14. A two-goal win would lift them back above Arcata into second. A draw would leave them third. A defeat would drop them to fourth, behind The International School of San Francisco.
The rematch to circle is Thursday, October 15, when Gateway visit Bay School of San Francisco. Their first meeting finished 0-0 last week. Bay School of San Francisco would stay first whatever the result. A one-goal win for Gateway would lift them two places to seventh, and a two-goal win would take them to sixth. Another draw would lift them to eighth. A Bay School of San Francisco win would drop Gateway to tenth.
The same day, College Preparatory School visit Bentley Upper School. A win would keep them fifth. A draw would drop them to sixth, behind Fort Bragg, and a defeat would drop them to seventh.
Arcata visit Del Norte on Saturday, October 17. A win or a draw would keep them second. A defeat would drop them to third, behind McKinleyville. The same afternoon, Fortuna visit Eureka. A win would lift them to seventh. A draw would change nothing, and a defeat would drop them to tenth.
On Tuesday, October 20, The International School of San Francisco visit Gateway, the side they beat 4-1 on October 1. A two-goal win would lift them past both Arcata and McKinleyville and back into second. A draw would change nothing. A Gateway win would lift them to seventh. The same day, Fort Bragg visit Lower Lake, and a win of any kind would lift them back to fifth.
Credo meet Calistoga, second in our Division 2 table, on Wednesday, October 21. A win would lift them two places to eighth.
The top two in the Bay Counties League - East meet again on Friday, October 23, when Athenian visits College Preparatory School. A College Preparatory School win would keep them fifth and drop Athenian to eighth. A draw would drop College Preparatory School to sixth, behind Fort Bragg. An Athenian win would lift them two places to fifth and drop College Preparatory School to seventh.
Arcata and McKinleyville finish their regular seasons against each other on Tuesday, October 27, at McKinleyville. A McKinleyville win would lift them past Arcata into second. An Arcata win would drop McKinleyville to fourth, behind The International School of San Francisco. A draw would leave both where they are.
About the ratings
The rating points in this story come from our own rankings model, not from NCS. Every team is rated on the same scale, across all four divisions, and 75 marks an average team. A result moves a rating more or less depending on who it came against: beating a strong side earns more than beating a weak one, and losing to a weak side costs more than losing to a strong one. The winning margin counts, but only up to five goals, so a 10-0 win is worth no more than a 5-0 win. Home teams get a small allowance, so an away win is worth slightly more than the same win at home. Early in the season, every rating is also pulled toward the average until a team has played enough games to show where it really stands.