Bay School of San Francisco end the regular season first in our NCS boys Division 1 rankings despite a semifinal upset, The International School of San Francisco climb to third after winning their league final, and Fort Bragg reach fourth with five straight wins.
The regular season is over, the league titles are settled and the NCS playoffs begin on Wednesday, November 4. The International School of San Francisco won the Bay Counties League - Central playoff final, Arcata won the Big 5 and Fort Bragg won North Central League I. Bentley took the Bay Counties League - East title, beating Athenian 2-1 in double overtime in the final. So, are Bay School of San Francisco still the team to beat? On our numbers, yes, though by a smaller margin than in our last table.
1. Bay School of San Francisco
Bay School of San Francisco stay first, but the gap has narrowed. Since our last table, they won four straight at home: 3-0 over Drew School, 1-0 over Gateway, 3-0 over Jewish Community and 9-0 over San Francisco Waldorf. That finished their Bay Counties League - Central regular season at 8-0-2, top of the table, and their regular season as a whole at 14-0-3, which coach Matthew Favela says is the first unbeaten regular season in the school's history. Then, on October 27, Gateway won 1-0 at Bay School in the league semifinal, the Breakers' first defeat of the season. That cost them 0.9 rating points, and they are now 1.4 points clear of second, down from 2.7 in our last table. Against the other nine sides in this top ten, they are 4-1-3, including a 1-1 draw with Arcata and a 0-0 draw and a 3-0 win against The International School of San Francisco.
Defense is what sets them apart. They have conceded four goals in 18 games, with 14 clean sheets. "Our boys love shutouts as much as scoring goals," Favela said. He credits senior center back Nate Won, junior center back Isaac Baristiran, and sophomore midfielders Lenin Yee and Liam Yee, who "played nearly every minute of every game," along with junior goalkeeper Eli Levison, who is "amazing with his feet and comes up big when called upon." The goals are shared just as widely. In the games with recorded stats, senior midfielder Teo Graham Cook, who scored the winner against Gateway on October 15, and Blaise Banks have eight each, Jackson Lessing has seven goals and four assists, and senior Noah Leopold has six. "We don't have a single goal scorer this season," Favela said. "We defend as a team, we attack as a unit." He also picked out two newcomers with a big future, sophomore Voss Brugger and freshman Austin Lan. NCS made Bay School the top seed in the Division 1 bracket, and they open on Friday, November 6, against the winner of Fort Bragg and Bentley.
2. Arcata
Arcata hold second and finish as Big 5 champions. Since our last table, they beat South Fork 8-0, lost 2-1 at Del Norte on October 17, then won their last three: 9-0 at Ferndale, 4-0 at home to Eureka and 5-2 at McKinleyville on October 27. That takes them from 13-3-2 to 17-4-2, the joint-most wins in the division. The defeat at Del Norte, their second to Del Norte this season, did not cost them a place. Junior captain Dakota Grosveld scored a hat trick at McKinleyville, two of the goals from the penalty spot, and set up another. Sophomore Isai Aguilar has 28 goals in 20 games, freshman Soren James has 17 goals and 12 assists, and Grosveld has 17 goals and 11 assists. Arcata have scored 105 goals in 23 games, and sophomore goalkeeper Owen Ingram has kept 10 clean sheets. Coach John Davidson named Grosveld, Isaac Ingram and Victor Vega as the captains who have led the way, and he knows what the playoffs will ask of a young side: "For us to have a deep run in playoffs our young team needs to show maturity in moments of adversity." His summary of the approach is shorter: "Our understanding is if the opponent can't score they won't win." Arcata are the fourth seed and open on November 6 against the winner of Calistoga and Fortuna.
3. The International School of San Francisco
The International School of San Francisco climb one place to third, as Bay Counties League - Central champions. The last week of their regular season was uneven. After a 5-0 win at Gateway on October 20, they lost 3-2 at home to Jewish Community two days later, the same score by which Jewish Community had beaten them in September. They answered in the playoffs, beating Jewish Community 4-0 in the semifinal on October 27 and Gateway 2-0 in the final at home on October 29, their third win over Gateway this season. That takes them from 7-2-1 to 10-3-1. Without that home defeat to Jewish Community, they would be second, ahead of Arcata. NCS seeded them third, one place above Arcata, and in our table the two sides are 0.5 points apart. Senior captain Eli Rothschild scored four goals and set up another in the 5-0 win at Gateway, scored twice and set up one in the semifinal, and scored in the final. He has 22 goals and 10 assists in 14 games, after three goals in eight games last fall. The other goal in the final came from senior Adam Moore, who scored 20 goals last season and has made the left back role his own this year. Coach Kirk Mayer said Moore scored it "from absurd distance." Mayer also credits senior center back Anikoh Arana, who has played "virtually every game minute," and junior goalkeeper Bradshaw Lambert. He named the team's culture as its biggest strength, and he said the season's setbacks have helped: "we walk through unexpected, disappointing hardships continually through the season and this forges our collective resolve." The International School of San Francisco open on November 6 against the winner of Athenian and Gateway.
4. Fort Bragg
Fort Bragg climb two places to fourth after five straight wins: 5-1 at Middletown, 4-0 over Upper Lake, 2-1 at Lower Lake on October 20, 5-1 over Willits and 4-0 at Clear Lake. They scored 20 goals in those five games and conceded three. That takes them from 12-4-2 to 17-4-2, and they won North Central League I at 12-1-1, their third league title in a row, according to coach Oscar Estrella. The win at Lower Lake, who finished second in the league, is what lifted them past McKinleyville. Without it, the two sides would be level on rating. Their one win over a side in this top ten came against Fortuna, 3-0 in September. The order also needs explaining, because McKinleyville beat Fort Bragg 1-0 twice, on August 28 and September 12. Since that second meeting, Fort Bragg have lost once in 16 games, while McKinleyville have lost three times. Senior captain Oscar Estrella Jr has 19 goals and eight assists, and his coach expects him to be named league MVP for a second straight year. Junior Ethan Hikes has 15 goals. Senior goalkeeper Tyler Rhoads and center back Matteo Caccamo, both captains, lead the defense. Estrella said the team's biggest strength going into the playoffs is the unity "we have been working on for four years." Fort Bragg are the eighth seed and host Bentley on November 4, with the winner going to Bay School of San Francisco two days later.
5. McKinleyville
McKinleyville drop two places to fifth. They drew 1-1 at Del Norte on October 14, won their next three by a combined 20-0: 8-0 over Ferndale, 6-0 at St. Bernard's Academy and 6-0 at South Fork, then lost 5-2 at home to Arcata on October 27. That takes them from 13-4-1 to 16-5-2. The defeat to Arcata is what cost them. Without it, they would be fourth, ahead of Fort Bragg. The draw at Del Norte made no difference to their place. Senior Gaelen Creighton and junior Becker Rine both scored against Arcata. Creighton has 27 goals and 10 assists, Rine has 24 goals in 14 games, and senior Lucas Jones has set up 21. McKinleyville are the seventh seed and host College Preparatory School on November 4. The winner visits Sonoma Academy, the unbeaten North Central League II champions, on November 6.
6. Fortuna
Fortuna climb two places to sixth. They beat Ferndale 6-0, lost 3-1 at Eureka on October 17, then won 9-1 at South Fork, 2-1 at Del Norte and 8-0 at St. Bernard's Academy. That takes them from 10-5-1 to 14-6-1, and they finish second in the Big 5 behind Arcata. The defeat at Eureka did not cost them a place. They climbed past College Preparatory School and Athenian, who both lost in the Bay Counties League - East playoffs. Fortuna still own a 1-0 win over McKinleyville from September 1. They are the 12th seed and visit Calistoga, second in our Division 2 table, on November 4. The winner meets Arcata, who beat Fortuna 1-0 and 2-1 this season.
7. Athenian
Athenian hold seventh after reaching the Bay Counties League - East final. They beat Saint Joseph Notre Dame 5-0, lost 1-0 at home to Bentley on October 20, then beat College Preparatory School 2-1 twice in five days, the second time in the league semifinal on October 27. In the final on October 30, they lost 2-1 at Bentley in double overtime. That takes them from 9-2-3 to 12-4-3. Without the defeat in the final, they would be sixth, ahead of Fortuna. Junior Arjun Mehrotra and senior Judah Mukome scored in the first win over College Preparatory School, sophomore Emeka Obiora scored in the semifinal and senior Cyrus Kapadia scored in the final. Mukome has 21 goals and 11 assists this season. Athenian are the sixth seed and host Gateway on November 4, with the winner going to The International School of San Francisco.
8. Gateway
Gateway climb one place to eighth. They lost 1-0 at Bay School of San Francisco on October 15 and 5-0 at home to The International School of San Francisco on October 20, then won 1-0 at Drew School. In the semifinal on October 27, they went back to Bay School of San Francisco and won 1-0, after a draw and a defeat against them earlier in the month. Two days later, they lost the final 2-0 at The International School of San Francisco. That takes them from 5-3-1 to 8-6-1. Without the semifinal win, they would be 11th and outside this top ten. They have played the second-hardest schedule in Division 1. Coach Henry Estrada describes a side built on effort: "We may not be a team that scores a lot of goals, but we are a team that will fight until the very last minute." He credits senior Matisse Molat in midfield, senior Santiago Dennis for his pace and pressure on opposing defenses, and center backs Fiderana Rakotomalala, a senior, and Elias Garcia, a sophomore, who have both played out of their usual positions. Gateway are the 11th seed and visit Athenian on November 4.
9. Credo
Credo move up one place to ninth. They beat Geyserville 13-1, lost 3-2 at home to Calistoga on October 21 and won 4-1 at Point Arena on October 23. That takes them from 11-5-2 to 13-6-2, third in North Central League II behind Sonoma Academy and Calistoga. Without the defeat to Calistoga, they would be eighth, ahead of Gateway. They still own one of the best wins of the season, 2-1 over Arcata in August. Credo play in the NCS Division 2 bracket, where they are the third seed and have a bye to the quarterfinals on November 6.
10. College Preparatory School
College Preparatory School fall five places to tenth after three straight 2-1 defeats, all away: at Bentley on October 15, then twice at Athenian, on October 23 and in the league semifinal on October 27. That takes them from 6-2-1 to 6-5-1. All five of their defeats have been by one goal, to Bay School of San Francisco, The International School of San Francisco, Bentley and Athenian twice, and no side in the division has played a harder schedule. Without the semifinal defeat alone, they would be seventh. Senior Pelayo Llamas III scored at Athenian on October 23, and he has 20 goals in nine games with recorded stats. College Preparatory School are the 10th seed and visit McKinleyville on November 4.
What is next: the NCS playoffs
NCS places teams in its playoff divisions on its own terms, so the Division 1 bracket includes three sides from our Division 2 table: Sonoma Academy, the second seed, Calistoga, the fifth, and Bentley, the ninth. The top four seeds have byes, the first round is Wednesday, November 4, the quarterfinals are Friday, November 6, the semifinals are Wednesday, November 11, and the final is Friday, November 13.
About the ratings
The rating points in this story come from our own rankings model, not from NCS. Every team is rated on the same scale, across all four divisions, and 75 marks an average team. A result moves a rating more or less depending on who it came against: beating a strong side earns more than beating a weak one, and losing to a weak side costs more than losing to a strong one. The winning margin counts, but only up to five goals, so a 10-0 win is worth no more than a 5-0 win. Home teams get a small allowance, so an away win is worth slightly more than the same win at home. Early in the season, every rating is also pulled toward the average until a team has played enough games to show where it really stands.
Editor's note: Inside The Ninety wants to tell more stories like this one. Records and results only go so far, and the best stories come from the people closest to the game. We thank Coach Favela of Bay School of San Francisco, Coach Davidson of Arcata, Coach Mayer of The International School of San Francisco, Coach Estrella of Fort Bragg and Coach Estrada of Gateway for sharing their thoughts on this season's teams.
If you coach a team with a story worth telling, we want to hear from you. There might be a breakout player, a season that turned around, or a group doing more with less. Email us at insidetheninety@gmail.com or send us a DM.
